Analysts see Napster's Janus service as no threat to iTunes

February 7, 2005

At a first glance, Napster's "All-You-Can-Eat" equivalent where users can download an unlimited amount of music for a flat monthly subscription seems like the ideal solution and Napster claims its new Janus subscription will 'change the music industry forever". However Paul Jackson, the principle analyst at Forrester predicts a different outcome. Napster's Janus subscription based service is likely going to grab some attention, but once one takes into account all the strings attached, the service does not look all that pretty after all.

The main thing consumers are after is to carry their downloaded music with them, but at the moment very few consumers actually have a Janus compatible player. As these tracks also have a time limit, the consumer must periodically synchronise their player's DRM with the PC, to avoid their music expiring on the deadline. For consumers such as teenagers who listen to music for only a few weeks before losing complete interest (such as most chart music), Janus may be ideal. However, some consumers who would consider themselves 'Music Fans' would be wary of using Janus for music they wish to keep in their collection.

Once consumers start using the service, they are effectively locked to the service in which as long as the customer keeps up their monthly payment, they can use the music unless they pay an additional cost per track they wish to permanently keep. For Napster, this is an advantage to them since the consumer would have to suffer consequence of losing all their 'Janus' music if they cancel or re-download all these tracks should they decide to change to another 'Rental' based service, especially if they have built up a large collection. GristyMcFisty submitted
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There are certain dynamics that are now in place that can make a success of such a subscriptions. The first is that the technology - in the form of Microsoft's Windows Media 10 DRM - can allow the transfer of music to portable devices, while still offering copyright protection.

In the case of Napster To Go, once customers stop their subscription, they DRM kicks in to prevent them from listening to any of the music they downloaded while it was still active. Jackson described the service as 'halfway between a radio station and downloading

tracks'. However, he expected that subscribers will end up with certain tracks they'll want to keep, and will be wary of the potential of losing them. 'That is a barrier to those that consider themselves music fans,' he said.

But the way we consume music is changing. 'The kind of person that wants to buy their music has personal preferences about the type of music they like and likes a more customised experience, says Jackson. It's an easy argument to make: that most people have a core canon of music they like to listen to again and again. But that's not true across the board. 'Different generations show significantly different use. Teens have a far lesser attachment to the physical music product. Owning the music is not important.'

Read the full article here.

At the moment, it looks like the small Janus player maket will slow down the take-off Napster's Janus based service. As the iPod is the market leader at the moment, making users change over from iTunes and give up their iPod for a Janus enabled player is not going to be easy either, especially the large number who also purchased music on iTunes. In my opinion, as long as no Janus support is made for the iPod and I strongly doubt Apple would ever take on Janus, it looks like Napster's Janus service will be no more effective than its current PC-only limited subscription service for the foreseeable future.

Feel free to discuss and find out more about Napster and other music download services on our Music Downloads, Peer-to-Peer (P2P) & Legal Issues Forum.

Source: PC Pro - Music/MP3 Players