Study predicts P2P evolution limits download sales growth

Get ready with your best eyeroll. According to a new report by Informa Media Group, the value of global music sales conducted over the internet will reach 3.9 billion dollars in 2008. The creatively named report, Music on the Internet (4th Edition) predicts music sales online will rise from 4.5% in 2003 to 11.9% in 2008. Hard format recordings will continue to account for the greatest share of this total in the years to 2008. The report also estimates that combined revenues from digital downloads and subscription services will rise to 1.8 billion in 2008. Now comes the other foot to fall.

The evolving nature of the p2p networks ensures that file-sharing will continue into the medium term at least. With greater emphasis on privacy and anonymity, access to p2p networks is set to increase markedly in the years to 2008. Informa Media expects the music industry to have some success in limiting consumers' access to illegal networks. However, high levels of unauthorised music copies will still be available to exchange through p2p-style networks. MUSIC ON THE INTERNET (4TH EDITION) estimates the value of lost sales to the music industry will rise from 2.4 billion in 2003 to 4.7 billion U.S. in 2008. Author of the report Simon Dyson said: "The determination of the p2p community to develop services that allow users to share music anonymously will keep a lid on any attempts to develop a legitimate download sector". Music sales via the internet have previously been hailed as a massive growth sector, Informa Media believes its significance has been exaggerated and will not, as some suggest, prove to be the industry's long-term saviour. However, the fall in the value of music sales will not continue indefinitely. "The impact on the value of global sales will lessen in 2004 and growth, albeit small, will return to the industry in the second half of 2005" stated Dyson. While subscription services may become secondary to a-la-carte downloads in the short term, Informa Media does not believe they will not be abandoned by the music industry altogether. Those consumers that become comfortable with downloading and regularly purchase a-la-carte downloads are likely to switch to a subscription service that provides greater value for money.

Parts of this study are hard to digest in light of recent outstanding and steady sales figures posted by iTunes and RealNetworks. As usual, it blames everything but the music industry and the products they produce. Merely stating once again, that the customer base is nothing more than a bunch of criminals, bouyed by uncrupulous  software providers. Apparently, they have not interviewed the consumer to ask what impact price gouging, DRM and poor quality have to do with music sales. One may wonder if these studies are merely an attempt to pander to the industry that supports them. RealNetworks and iTunes suggest, at least in the short term, a desire for a legitimate internet marketplace for music, musicians or any content provider for that matter, that is an alternative to the existing outdated, inefficient and poorly managed paradigm.

On the Informa Media's website they tout themselves as being the world's largest media information provider, providing publications that contain insight and expert analysis on all topics, trends and key issues affecting the media industry today. They go on to say that media professionals throughout the world depend on their publications to keep them updated with the increasingly complex ecology of international media markets. Encompassing broadcasting, programming and production, network development, or new media. Whatever.

Source: mi2n.com