The moving picture: MPEG-4 is dead

April 13, 2004

EMediaLive.com has put up an
article that explains why, according to them, the MPEG-4 format will never hit
off. MPEG-4 is
currently one of the video technologies that is fighting to replace the current
MPEG-2 format as used on DVDs. A strong competing format is Microsofts Windows
Media Video 9 and also alternatives are in development. The articles mentions
that Microsofts market domination and monopoly will likely also push the Windows
Media format as the next successor instead of MPEG-4.

"The
battle to create and own a proprietary industry standard generates rapid
improvements in price and performance, at least until somebody emerges
totally dominant. If fact, even after a monopolist emerges, there is still
considerable pressure to innovate, because unless you can induce your
installed base to upgrade frequently, you have a hard time continuing to
grow. There is a risk that a monopolist can misbehave, but slow moving,
least-common-denominator, nonproprietary, committee-developed standards
are often much worse than any monopoly."

That last sentence kind of describes MPEG-4
to a T, doesn't it? Of course, your first thought might be, "Well, what
about MPEG-1 and 2, two standards that have succeeded beyond any
reasonable expectations?" Great question, so I'll address them
first.

Unfortunately the article seems to miss out some
points such as DivX and Quicktime, which have become very very popular over the
last few years and are MPEG-4 codecs. Also AAC which seems to become more
and more successful is part of the MPEG-4 specifications. The articles also
claims that MPEG-4 is of lower quality then WMV and Real, I think there will be
people who doubt that. There's probably lots more to discuss after you have
read the entire article.

Source: Emedialive.com